Sunday, November 1, 2009

Pro's and con's of the current economic situation

I would just like to point out a few benefits of the recession which I have heard little about from the news media.

1. Lower housing prices mean lower rents which will help boost consumer spending
2. Weak dollar will lead to economic growth through stimulating exports (our goods will be cheaper to the rest of the world) and eventually creating jobs (hopefully lowering the deficit). The weak dollar will also stimulate the profits of American companies, a lot of whom are multinational. The goods they sell overseas will be earning foreign currency which will convert to higher amounts than if the dollar was strong.

There are also a few signs that are troubling to me right now:

1. High commodity prices, particularly copper and oil.
2. Extremely low interest rates, this suggests that we still have a significant amount of de-leveraging left to occur. If this is not the case then interest rates will begin to increase (unless the Federal Reserve slows the growth of the money supply) and constrict demand.

At the end of the day there are people and companies in the USA still trying to create the next Google and who are constantly inventing and improving upon our current ways of life. This will not stop simply because of the housing crisis.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Congress about to stoke the next bubble?

After reading this article in the NY Times authored by San Jose State professor Randall Stross I could not help but to be reminded of the silly policies the Federal Government adopted in an attempt to help low income families purchase homes (See: Community Reinvestment Act, Federal Housing Authority, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Barney Frank, George Bush, etc...). http://bit.ly/1UCbV5

Don't get me wrong...I am all about helping people educate themselves but some of the numbers being thrown out in this article are absurd: $350 billion to guarantee 100 MBPS for each citizen in the United States? Last time I checked internet access was not so expensive as to prevent even low income people from purchasing it. In fact, Comcast is offering a promotion deal for $20 a month for 6 months right now. Also...why on earth does every citizen in the US need that much speed? I consider myself a pretty advanced user and I have about 10 MBPS; this has never been too slow.

We do not need yet another ridiculous policy of social engineering that some bonehead congress person can pad their resume with. If they really want to help people, the Federal Government could lower our taxes or just give us the cash they want to spend on this project and as a rational investor/consumer I will spend the money how I see fit. Another great idea would be not to spend money we do not have. This is not the USSR and I am tired of the central planning our democratically elected politicians feel is the best way to get things done.